World Cup 2026 Predictions
Title odds for all 48 nations, every group predicted, and win probabilities for all 104 matches, from a 20,000-simulation model built on real World Football Elo ratings and the real draw.
Model updated 1 August 2026 · 100,000 simulations · see its track record
How the title race finished
Spain lifted the 2026 World Cup. These are the final title odds, locked to the result.
- 1
100% 63.9% finalSpain
- 2
0% 39.3% finalArgentina
- 3
0% 0% finalEngland
- 4
0% 0% finalFrance
- 5
0% 0% finalColombia
- 6
0% 0% finalBrazil
- 7
0% 0% finalPortugal
- 8
0% 0% finalMexico
Next matches, predicted
Predict each match and track your accuracy against our model.
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How the model called the groups
The group stage is complete. Each group shows the model's predicted order — 100% means the team reached the Round of 32.
Group A
- Mexico 100%
-
South Africa 100% -
South Korea 0% -
Czechia 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Group B
-
Switzerland 100% -
Canada 100% -
Bosnia-Herzegovina 100% -
Qatar 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Group C
- Brazil 100%
-
Morocco 100% -
Scotland 0% -
Haiti 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Group D
-
United States 100% -
Australia 100% -
Paraguay 100% -
Turkey 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Group E
-
Germany 100% -
Ivory Coast 100% -
Ecuador 100% -
Curaçao 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Group F
-
Netherlands 100% -
Japan 100% -
Sweden 100% -
Tunisia 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Group G
-
Belgium 100% -
Egypt 100% -
Iran 0% -
New Zealand 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Group H
- Spain 100%
-
Cape Verde Islands 100% -
Uruguay 0% -
Saudi Arabia 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Group I
- France 100%
-
Norway 100% -
Senegal 100% -
Iraq 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Group J
- Argentina 100%
-
Austria 100% -
Algeria 100% -
Jordan 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Group K
- Colombia 100%
- Portugal 100%
-
Congo DR 100% -
Uzbekistan 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Group L
- England 100%
-
Croatia 100% -
Ghana 100% -
Panama 0%
% = advancement odds · groups are final, 100% = reached the R32
Every World Cup 2026 match predicted
How the model's predicted score did against the real result. Tap a match for the full breakdown.
Group stage · 72 matches
- Mexico vs South Africa 2–0 model 2–0
- South Korea vs Czechia 2–1 model 1–1
- Canada vs Bosnia Herzegovina 1–1 model 2–0
- United States vs Paraguay 4–1 model 1–1
- Qatar vs Switzerland 1–1 model 0–2
- Brazil vs Morocco 1–1 model 1–1
- Haiti vs Scotland 0–1 model 0–2
- Australia vs Turkey 2–0 model 1–1
- Germany vs Curacao 7–1 model 2–0
- Netherlands vs Japan 2–2 model 1–1
- Ivory Coast vs Ecuador 1–0 model 1–1
- Sweden vs Tunisia 5–1 model 1–0
- Spain vs Cape Verde Islands 0–0 model 2–0
- Belgium vs Egypt 1–1 model 2–0
- Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay 1–1 model 0–2
- Iran vs New Zealand 2–2 model 2–0
- France vs Senegal 3–1 model 2–0
- Iraq vs Norway 1–4 model 0–2
- Argentina vs Algeria 3–0 model 2–0
- Austria vs Jordan 3–1 model 1–0
- Portugal vs Congo Dr 1–1 model 2–0
- England vs Croatia 4–2 model 1–1
- Ghana vs Panama 1–0 model 0–2
- Uzbekistan vs Colombia 1–3 model 0–2
- Czechia vs South Africa 1–1 model 2–0
- Switzerland vs Bosnia Herzegovina 4–1 model 2–0
- Canada vs Qatar 6–0 model 2–0
- Mexico vs South Korea 1–0 model 1–0
- United States vs Australia 2–0 model 1–1
- Scotland vs Morocco 0–1 model 1–1
- Brazil vs Haiti 3–0 model 2–0
- Turkey vs Paraguay 0–1 model 1–1
- Netherlands vs Sweden 5–1 model 1–0
- Germany vs Ivory Coast 2–1 model 2–0
- Ecuador vs Curacao 0–0 model 2–0
- Tunisia vs Japan 0–4 model 0–2
- Spain vs Saudi Arabia 4–0 model 2–0
- Belgium vs Iran 0–0 model 1–1
- Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands 2–2 model 2–0
- New Zealand vs Egypt 1–3 model 1–1
- Argentina vs Austria 2–0 model 2–0
- France vs Iraq 3–0 model 2–0
- Norway vs Senegal 3–2 model 1–1
- Jordan vs Algeria 1–2 model 1–1
- Portugal vs Uzbekistan 5–0 model 2–0
- England vs Ghana 0–0 model 2–0
- Panama vs Croatia 0–1 model 0–1
- Colombia vs Congo Dr 1–0 model 2–0
- Switzerland vs Canada 2–1 model 1–1
- Bosnia Herzegovina vs Qatar 3–1 model 1–0
- Morocco vs Haiti 4–2 model 2–0
- Scotland vs Brazil 0–3 model 0–1
- Czechia vs Mexico 0–3 model 0–2
- South Africa vs South Korea 1–0 model 0–2
- Ecuador vs Germany 2–1 model 1–1
- Curacao vs Ivory Coast 0–2 model 0–2
- Tunisia vs Netherlands 1–3 model 0–2
- Japan vs Sweden 1–1 model 1–0
- Turkey vs United States 3–2 model 1–1
- Paraguay vs Australia 0–0 model 1–1
- Norway vs France 1–4 model 0–1
- Senegal vs Iraq 5–0 model 2–0
- Uruguay vs Spain 0–1 model 0–2
- Cape Verde Islands vs Saudi Arabia 0–0 model 1–1
- New Zealand vs Belgium 1–5 model 0–2
- Egypt vs Iran 1–1 model 1–1
- Panama vs England 0–2 model 0–2
- Croatia vs Ghana 2–1 model 2–0
- Colombia vs Portugal 0–0 model 1–1
- Congo Dr vs Uzbekistan 3–1 model 1–1
- Jordan vs Argentina 1–3 model 0–2
- Algeria vs Austria 3–3 model 1–1
LAST 32 · 16 matches
- South Africa vs Canada 0–1 model 0–2
- Brazil vs Japan 2–1 model 1–1
- Germany vs Paraguay 4–5 model 1–1
- Netherlands vs Morocco 3–4 model 1–1
- Ivory Coast vs Norway 1–2 model 0–1
- France vs Sweden 3–0 model 2–0
- Mexico vs Ecuador 2–0 model 1–1
- England vs Congo Dr 2–1 model 2–0
- Belgium vs Senegal 3–2 model 1–1
- United States vs Bosnia Herzegovina 2–0 model 2–0
- Spain vs Austria 3–0 model 2–0
- Portugal vs Croatia 2–1 model 1–1
- Switzerland vs Algeria 2–0 model 1–1
- Australia vs Egypt 3–5 model 1–1
- Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands 3–2 model 2–0
- Colombia vs Ghana 1–0 model 2–0
LAST 16 · 8 matches
QUARTER FINALS · 4 matches
SEMI FINALS · 2 matches
THIRD PLACE · 1 matches
FINAL · 1 matches
Favourites & contenders
Pre-tournament title odds for all 48 nations. Teams knocked out of the tournament are marked as it plays out.
Favourites · 1
Long shots · 47
- Argentina Out Grp J · eliminated
- England Out Grp L · eliminated
- France Out Grp I · eliminated
- Colombia Out Grp K · eliminated
- Brazil Out Grp C · eliminated
- Portugal Out Grp K · eliminated
- Mexico Out Grp A · eliminated
- Netherlands Out Grp F · eliminated
- Belgium Out Grp G · eliminated
- Norway Out Grp I · eliminated
- Switzerland Out Grp B · eliminated
- Germany Out Grp E · eliminated
- Morocco Out Grp C · eliminated
- Japan Out Grp F · eliminated
- Ecuador Out Grp E · eliminated
- Croatia Out Grp L · eliminated
- South Africa Out Grp A · eliminated
- South Korea Out Grp A · eliminated
- Czechia Out Grp A · eliminated
- Canada Out Grp B · eliminated
- Bosnia-Herzegovina Out Grp B · eliminated
- Qatar Out Grp B · eliminated
- Scotland Out Grp C · eliminated
- Haiti Out Grp C · eliminated
- United States Out Grp D · eliminated
- Australia Out Grp D · eliminated
- Paraguay Out Grp D · eliminated
- Turkey Out Grp D · eliminated
- Ivory Coast Out Grp E · eliminated
- Curaçao Out Grp E · eliminated
- Sweden Out Grp F · eliminated
- Tunisia Out Grp F · eliminated
- Egypt Out Grp G · eliminated
- Iran Out Grp G · eliminated
- New Zealand Out Grp G · eliminated
- Cape Verde Islands Out Grp H · eliminated
- Uruguay Out Grp H · eliminated
- Saudi Arabia Out Grp H · eliminated
- Senegal Out Grp I · eliminated
- Iraq Out Grp I · eliminated
- Austria Out Grp J · eliminated
- Algeria Out Grp J · eliminated
- Jordan Out Grp J · eliminated
- Congo DR Out Grp K · eliminated
- Uzbekistan Out Grp K · eliminated
- Ghana Out Grp L · eliminated
- Panama Out Grp L · eliminated
Probabilities lock in matches already played (group AND knockout) and simulate the rest (seeded Monte-Carlo on the real 2026 draw + World Football Elo), so they update after every match. Eliminated teams are locked to 0% for rounds they can no longer reach; surviving teams' title odds are renormalised model estimates from a representative bracket.