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⚽ FIFA World Cup 2026 · 11 Jun – 19 Jul

World Cup 2026 Predictions

Title odds for all 48 nations, every group predicted, and win probabilities for all 104 matches — from a 20,000-simulation model built on real World Football Elo ratings and the real draw.

Build your bracket See the groups Title favourites

Model updated 4 June 2026 · 20,000 simulations

Who will win?

Title favourites

Each nation's model probability of lifting the 2026 World Cup.

  1. 1

    Spain

    36.6% 49% final
  2. 2

    Argentina

    21.3% 34.7% final
  3. 3

    France

    14.6% 27.2% final
  4. 4

    England

    6.3% 15.1% final
  5. 5

    Brazil

    3.7% 10.4% final
  6. 6

    Portugal

    3.4% 9.4% final
  7. 7

    Colombia

    2.9% 8.3% final
  8. 8

    Netherlands

    1.6% 5.8% final
Group stage

Group-by-group predictions

Predicted finishing order and each team's chance of advancing (real 2026 draw).

Group A

  • Mexico 97.6%
  • South Korea 81.7%
  • Czechia 76.4%
  • South Africa 15.4%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

Group B

  • Switzerland 97.9%
  • Canada 96.7%
  • Bosnia-Herzegovina 55.2%
  • Qatar 12.6%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

Group C

  • Brazil 98.1%
  • Morocco 85%
  • Scotland 74.1%
  • Haiti 14.4%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

Group D

  • Turkey 87.6%
  • Paraguay 72.4%
  • United States 60.5%
  • Australia 55.1%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

Group E

  • Ecuador 97.7%
  • Germany 97.6%
  • Ivory Coast 64%
  • Curaçao 7.7%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

Group F

  • Netherlands 95.7%
  • Japan 93%
  • Sweden 51.7%
  • Tunisia 26.4%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

Group G

  • Belgium 96.1%
  • Iran 82.6%
  • Egypt 67.2%
  • New Zealand 24.3%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

Group H

  • Spain 99.8%
  • Uruguay 94.1%
  • Cape Verde Islands 29.5%
  • Saudi Arabia 27%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

Group I

  • France 98.4%
  • Norway 86.3%
  • Senegal 77.1%
  • Iraq 10.9%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

Group J

  • Argentina 99.3%
  • Austria 75.1%
  • Algeria 55.5%
  • Jordan 31.9%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

Group K

  • Portugal 96.2%
  • Colombia 95.7%
  • Uzbekistan 43.5%
  • Congo DR 27.2%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

Group L

  • England 98.8%
  • Croatia 94.3%
  • Panama 65.1%
  • Ghana 9.5%

% = chance to reach the knockouts

All 48 nations

Favourites & contenders

Every World Cup 2026 nation, ranked by title probability.

Favourites · 3

Contenders · 3

Dark horses · 5

Long shots · 37

  • Norway Grp I · 0.9% title
  • Turkey Grp D · 0.8% title
  • Croatia Grp L · 0.8% title
  • Japan Grp F · 0.7% title
  • Switzerland Grp B · 0.6% title
  • Uruguay Grp H · 0.6% title
  • Belgium Grp G · 0.4% title
  • Canada Grp B · 0.3% title
  • Senegal Grp I · 0.3% title
  • Morocco Grp C · 0.1% title
  • United States Grp D · 0.1% title
  • Paraguay Grp D · 0.1% title
  • Austria Grp J · 0.1% title
  • Czechia Grp A · 0% title
  • South Africa Grp A · 0% title
  • South Korea Grp A · 0% title
  • Bosnia-Herzegovina Grp B · 0% title
  • Qatar Grp B · 0% title
  • Haiti Grp C · 0% title
  • Scotland Grp C · 0% title
  • Australia Grp D · 0% title
  • Curaçao Grp E · 0% title
  • Ivory Coast Grp E · 0% title
  • Sweden Grp F · 0% title
  • Tunisia Grp F · 0% title
  • Egypt Grp G · 0% title
  • Iran Grp G · 0% title
  • New Zealand Grp G · 0% title
  • Cape Verde Islands Grp H · 0% title
  • Saudi Arabia Grp H · 0% title
  • Iraq Grp I · 0% title
  • Algeria Grp J · 0% title
  • Jordan Grp J · 0% title
  • Congo DR Grp K · 0% title
  • Uzbekistan Grp K · 0% title
  • Ghana Grp L · 0% title
  • Panama Grp L · 0% title

Group/advance probabilities use the real 2026 draw + World Football Elo. Knockout/title numbers are model estimates from a seeded Monte-Carlo with a representative bracket.