Mexico vs South Africa Prediction
- Prediction
- Mexico
- Confidence
- Very High
- xG (MEX)
- 2.28
- xG (SOU)
- 0.22
Why this prediction?
Mexico win probability: 84%
- MEX
Elo rating advantage
Mexico are rated 353 Elo higher (1913 vs 1560).
- MEX
Scoring projection
Mexico projected 2.3 goals, South Africa 0.2 goals.
- MEX
Defensive solidity
Mexico project the meaner defence (concede ~0.2/game).
- MEX
Home advantage
Playing at home adds roughly 65 Elo to Mexico.
Ratings: Mexico 1913 · South Africa 1560 · Source: World Football Elo (eloratings.net) (as of 2026-08-02).
Most likely results
- 2–0 21%
- 1–0 18%
- 3–0 16%
- 4–0 9%
- 0–0 9%
Your questions about Mexico vs South Africa
Who is predicted to win Mexico vs South Africa?
Our model favours Mexico. The win probabilities are 84% for Mexico, 14% for a draw and 2% for South Africa.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs South Africa?
The most likely scoreline for this fixture is 2–0, based on the expected goals for both sides.
Are these match predictions guaranteed?
No prediction is ever guaranteed. These figures are statistical estimates intended for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice.
More World Cup 2026 predictions
This prediction is a statistical estimate for analysis and entertainment only, not betting advice. 18+.