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World Cup 2026 · Matchday 1

Netherlands vs Japan Prediction

Netherlands Home
11
Predicted score
Japan Away
Netherlands win Draw Japan win
48% 29% 23%
Prediction
Netherlands
Confidence
Medium
xG (NED)
1.51
xG (JAP)
0.99
Model confidence: Medium 48%

Why this prediction?

Netherlands win probability: 48%

  • NED

    Scoring projection

    Netherlands projected 1.5 goals, Japan 1.0 goals.

  • NED

    Defensive solidity

    Netherlands project the meaner defence (concede ~1.0/game).

  • NED

    Elo rating advantage

    Netherlands are rated 83 Elo higher (1971 vs 1888).

  • EVEN

    Neutral venue

    No home advantage is applied at a neutral venue.

Ratings: Netherlands 1971 · Japan 1888 · Source: World Football Elo (eloratings.net) (as of 2026-08-02).

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Scorelines

Most likely results

  • 1–1 14%
  • 1–0 11%
  • 0–0 10%
  • 2–0 9%
  • 2–1 9%
FAQ

Your questions about Netherlands vs Japan

Who is predicted to win Netherlands vs Japan?

Our model favours Netherlands. The win probabilities are 48% for Netherlands, 29% for a draw and 23% for Japan.

What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Japan?

The most likely scoreline for this fixture is 1–1, based on the expected goals for both sides.

Are these match predictions guaranteed?

No prediction is ever guaranteed. These figures are statistical estimates intended for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice.

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This prediction is a statistical estimate for analysis and entertainment only, not betting advice. 18+.