Mexico vs England Prediction
- Prediction
- England
- Confidence
- High
- xG (MEX)
- 0.70
- xG (ENG)
- 1.60
Why this prediction?
England win probability: 58%
- ENG
Scoring projection
Mexico projected 0.7 goals, England 1.6 goals.
- ENG
Elo rating advantage
England are rated 212 Elo higher (1913 vs 2125).
- ENG
Defensive solidity
England project the meaner defence (concede ~0.7/game).
- MEX
Home advantage
Playing at home adds roughly 65 Elo to Mexico.
- EVEN
Round of 16-stage adjustment
Round of 16 matches are tighter, so expected goals are reduced to ~2.3 combined.
Ratings: Mexico 1913 · England 2125 · Source: World Football Elo (eloratings.net) (as of 2026-08-02).
Most likely results
- 0–1 15%
- 0–2 13%
- 1–1 13%
- 0–0 11%
- 1–2 9%
Your questions about Mexico vs England
Who is predicted to win Mexico vs England?
Our model favours England. The win probabilities are 14% for Mexico, 28% for a draw and 58% for England.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs England?
The most likely scoreline for this fixture is 0–1, based on the expected goals for both sides.
Are these match predictions guaranteed?
No prediction is ever guaranteed. These figures are statistical estimates intended for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice.
More World Cup 2026 predictions
This prediction is a statistical estimate for analysis and entertainment only, not betting advice. 18+.