Spain vs Belgium Prediction
- Prediction
- Spain
- Confidence
- Very High
- xG (ESP)
- 1.95
- xG (BEL)
- 0.25
Why this prediction?
Spain win probability: 78%
- ESP
Elo rating advantage
Spain are rated 312 Elo higher (2259 vs 1947).
- ESP
Scoring projection
Spain projected 2.0 goals, Belgium 0.2 goals.
- ESP
Defensive solidity
Spain project the meaner defence (concede ~0.2/game).
- EVEN
Quarter-final-stage adjustment
Quarter-final matches are tighter, so expected goals are reduced to ~2.2 combined.
- EVEN
Neutral venue
No home advantage is applied at a neutral venue.
Ratings: Spain 2259 · Belgium 1947 · Source: World Football Elo (eloratings.net) (as of 2026-08-02).
Most likely results
- 2–0 21%
- 1–0 21%
- 3–0 14%
- 0–0 12%
- 4–0 7%
Your questions about Spain vs Belgium
Who is predicted to win Spain vs Belgium?
Our model favours Spain. The win probabilities are 78% for Spain, 19% for a draw and 3% for Belgium.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Belgium?
The most likely scoreline for this fixture is 2–0, based on the expected goals for both sides.
Are these match predictions guaranteed?
No prediction is ever guaranteed. These figures are statistical estimates intended for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice.
More World Cup 2026 predictions
This prediction is a statistical estimate for analysis and entertainment only, not betting advice. 18+.